Saturday, October 20, 2018

Reasons For The Rupee Being Weak

Apart from the US Federal Reserve's actions,the Basic reason  for the Rupee becoming weak is a strong US Dollar.The actions which make the US Dollar strong are:- 
1.The Gold Schemes of the NDA,which are actually INDIRECT Gold Control,preventing Money going into Physical Gold.Recall Gold is INVERSE US Dollar!
2.Half of India's Gold Reserve is outside:-
312 MT with BIS which uses this for Swaps with other central banks.Result cheap Gold and a strong US Dollar, the BoE[ from 1991! ]
3.Huge US Treasury Holdings of $ 162.70 Billion,as of June 2019.
4.Huge Forex of about $ 400 Billion

Gold Silver ratio 84

1.Central Banks are buying Gold,as the USA resorts to Sanctions,other countries are shunning the US Dollar,Liquidity Crunch in the US Dollar due to tapering by the US Federal Reserve,etc.The US Federal reserve may raise rates.
THE REASON FOR THE RATE HIKES :-
1. OVERVALUATION OF COLLATERAL DUE TO ASSET BUBBLE,AS LIQUIDITY IS MORE  AND CASH IS CHEAP.
2.To save the Pension System.The decade long ZIRP,is reported to have destroyed the US Pension System.
3.To deleverage the Huge Corporate Debt.
Besides the Gold\Silver ratio is above 84.Silver looks good.
2.In the BSE\NSE, NHPC looks good,as the GOI has brought out a Policy favouring Public Sector Power Cos.NTPC may buy some stressed Power Cos and has taken a Loan of about US Dollars 150 Million for raising production.
3.ONGC,Oil India and IOC may buyback shares.